Macworld 2007 Wishlist: Macs and MacBooks

Macworld 2007 is just days away. Here's a look at what's likely to be revealed, some promising ideas that are less likely to get delivered, and things that have no chance of happening. Part two covers the Mac family.

Part 1: iPod, Phone, iTV | Part 2: Macs and MacBooks | Part 3: iLife, iWork and .Mac | Part 4: Mac OS X Leopard

Part 2: Macs and MacBooks

While Macworld covers other Apple products, it largely directs attention to the Mac. Last year’s Macworld introduced the new Intel based iMac Core Duo and previewed the new MacBook Pro.

Over the last half decade however, Apple has only released one or two new or revised Mac hardware lines at each Macworld event:

•Macworld 2000 - G4 Cube
•Macworld 2001 - Titanium PowerBook
•Macworld 2002 - Flat panel iMac G4, 14” iBook
•Macworld 2003 - 12” and 17” PowerBooks
•Macworld 2004 - Xserve G5
•Macworld 2005 - Mac Mini

Anyone hoping for Apple to release “an all new everything” this year will be disappointed, just as legions of bloggers announce every year in a united chorus of “that’s it?” after hearing that the year’s Macworld will be much the same as every other Macworld before it.

Ultralight Rumors

This year’s unsubstantiated rumors for Mac hardware include a 12” MacBook, a product Apple announced it would not build. There is a market for ultralight laptops, but it isn’t clear how Apple could capitalize on that market.

The reason is that ultralight laptops are inherently fragile, and being super light and thin also necessitates being more expensive with fewer features, or fully featured at a ridiculous price. Expensive products with limited appeal are not what Apple’s been building, nor are they easy to sell in Apple’s retail stores or to education.

Apple’s products are all designed to perfectly hit 80% of the market. To do that, the company forgoes the ultra cheap and ultra high end. Apple won’t be shipping sub $500 Macs, nor is it likely that the company will try to sell $4000 ultralights. It’s simply a difficult product to target because ultralight buyers are notoriously fickle.

Existing competitors already have loyal customers, simply because ultralight laptops are not a mass market product with broad common appeal. Some focus on being light and thin with a slow CPU and no CD, others ship loaded with features and a painful price tag. Who would Apple target?

Speed Bumps

Intel Xserves and Mac Pros were just announced in the second half of 2006, making it unlikely Apple would need to say anything about them, although Adobe CS3 will likely be trotted out as the reason to buy a new Mac Pro.

The rest of Apple’s lineup, from MacBooks and MacBook Pros to the iMac and Mac mini are all relatively fresh, leaving little room for any exciting updates.

The star of Macworld may be the half-sized companion to the Mac mini: the iTV, or as I like to call it, the Airport AV.

Earlier events have all tried to add excitement to Apple’s hardware lineup or expand into new product categories. This year, there isn’t a huge void demanding a new Mac however.

•Macworld 2000 The G4 Cube attempted to deliver a new personal workstation.
•Macworld 2001 The Titanium PowerBook created new sizzle in the tired laptop line.
•Macworld 2002 Flat panel iMac G4 resurrected the languishing iMac series.
•Macworld 2003 12” and 17” PowerBooks revitalized and expanded Apple’s laptops.
•Macworld 2004 Xserve G5 renewed the server line.
•Macworld 2005 Mac Mini created a new category between PowerMacs and iMacs.
•Macworld 2006 Launched the new Intel lineup, now complete.

New Tricks For Existing Macs

More interesting than new hardware will be new applications. The iTV will launch a major new initiative in connecting the home computer with home theater, iTunes, iLife, and gaming.

Of course Leopard will also be a key star, and if the planets align as expected, Apple will announce the launch of the iPod Phone, and how it will link the iPod, iPhone, iTV platform all together.

For Macs, that just leaves speed bumps and reports on how Mac sales are going. Last summer, I estimated Mac sales increasing toward 2010 to get an idea of how long PowerPC Macs would stick around.

Sales Estimates

2009 5,250,000

2008 5,000,000

2007 4,800,000

2006 4,600,000

Actual numbers

2005 4,534,000

2004 3,290,000

2003 3,012,000

Since the dotcom crash in 2001, Mac sales have languished at around 800,000 per quarter. In 2005, sales jumped above a million per quarter, peaking out at 1.2 million during the fourth quarter.

They didn’t drop back down, either. The line graph above shows actual sales numbers, not my estimates.

In the middle of this year, Mac sales surged to a 1.6 million Mac quarter, leaving my fiscal year 2006 estimate low by nearly a million: 5,303,000 vs. 4,600,000.

That’s more Macs than Apple sold in the 2000 tech bubble, and more than I expected Apple to sell in any year within this decade. It also doesn’t count this winter quarter’s sales, which is Apple’s fiscal Q1 2007.

Installed Base

For this winter quarter, Mac sales will approach 2 million!

That’s good news for anyone who buys Mac software, as it means a dramatic lift in demand for new software development. Consider installed base figures.

At Macworld 2006, there was an installed base of 13.9 million recent Macs--less than four years old--and all were PowerPC.

This year, there are over 16 million recent Macs, and nearly a third are Intel based. Next year, there will be close to 20 million Macs, and more than half will be Intel based.

That’s a huge increase, and it’s being driven by factors that are not going away. The rosy glow of the iPod, combined with Apple’s retail efforts and the new features of Intel Macs make the Mac platform broadly appealing, particularly when compared to the same old PC offerings.

That means more new Mac development both from Apple and third parties. The next article will look at Macworld 2007 on the software front.

Macworld Scorecard: Macs and MacBooks

Likely to be revealed